Energy Security After Diversification: Is The European Union Entering A Post-Crisis Vulnerability Trap?

Elmir Badalov

doi:10.34135/sjps.260103

Authors

Elmir Badalov Khazar University, Department of Political Science and Philosophy

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.34135/sjps.260103

Keywords:

EU energy security, post-crisis vulnerability trap, LNG diversification, infrastructure lock-in, fiscal asymmetry, energy justice, path dependence

Abstract

The European Union’s response to the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been widely regarded as a policy success. Russian gas imports declined from over 40 per cent of EU supply in 2021 to below 15 per cent by the end of 2023, while LNG import capacity expanded by more than 30 per cent. Yet, as the acute phase recedes, less attention has been paid to the longer-term structural vulnerabilities emerging from this transformation. This article examines whether the EU’s post-2022 energy strategy risks entrenching a new form of structural fragility, conceptualised here as post-crisis vulnerability trap. Drawing on a structured qualitative analysis of EU policy documents, market data from the IEA, ACER, and Eurostat, and comparative assessment of national implementation patterns between 2022 and 2024, the article argues that diversification has reconfigured rather than resolved energy insecurity. New exposures have emerged in the form of LNG price volatility, fiscal asymmetries among member states, infrastructure lock-in, and growing social contestation over energy costs. The analysis identifies a systemic pattern of EU reactive crisis governance that transcends the energy domain.

References

Aalto, P. (Ed.). (2008). The EU–Russian energy dialogue: Europe’s future energy security. Aldershot: Ashgate.

ACER (Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators). (2023). Annual Report on the Results of Monitoring the Internal Electricity and Natural Gas Markets. ACER.

Boersma, T. and Johnson, C. (2012). The shale gas revolution: US and EU policy and research agendas. In: Review of Policy Research. Vol. 29, No. 4, pp. 570–576.

Bouzarovski, S. (2018). Energy poverty: (Dis)assembling Europe’s infrastructural divide. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan.

Bouzarovski, S. and Simcock, N. (2017). Spatializing energy justice. In: Energy Policy. Vol. 107, pp. 640–648.

Bruegel. (2023). Europe’s energy crisis: Economic impacts and policy responses. Brussels: Bruegel.

Bruegel. (2024). National fiscal responses to the energy crisis: Tracker update. Brussels: Bruegel. Available at: https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/national-policies-shield-consumers-rising-energy-prices [Accessed 10 Mar. 2025].

Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS). (2024). Energy affordability and fiscal divergence in the EU. Brussels: CEPS.

Cherp, A. and Jewell, J. (2014). The concept of energy security: Beyond the four As. In: Energy Policy. Vol. 75, pp. 415–421.

Chester, L. (2010). Conceptualising energy security and making explicit its polysemic nature. In: Energy Policy. Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 887–895.

Correlje, A. and van der Linde, C. (2006). Energy supply security and geopolitics: A European perspective. In: Energy Policy. Vol. 34, No. 5, pp. 532–543.

European Commission. (2021). Fit for 55: Delivering the EU’s 2030 climate target on the way to climate neutrality (COM(2021) 550 final). Brussels: European Commission.

European Commission. (2022). REPowerEU Plan (COM(2022) 230 final). Brussels: European Commission.

European Commission. (2023). Recovery and Resilience Facility: Implementation overview. Brussels: European Commission.

Eurostat. (2023). Energy prices and inflation statistics. Luxembourg: Eurostat. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat [Accessed 10 Mar. 2025].

Farrell, H. and Newman, A. L. (2019). Weaponized Interdependence: How Global Economic Networks Shape State Coercion. In: International Security, Vol. 44, No. 1, pp. 42–79.

George, A. L. and Bennett, A. (2005). Case studies and theory development in the social sciences. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Giddens, A. (2009). The politics of climate change. Cambridge: Polity Press.

Goldthau, A. (2022). From market to security logics in energy governance. In: Energy Policy. Vol. 162, 112777.

Goldthau, A. and Sitter, N. (2015). A liberal actor in a realist world: The European Union regulatory state and the global political economy of energy. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Goldthau, A. and Witte, J. M. (2010). The role of rules and institutions in global energy: An introduction. In: Goldthau, A. and Witte, J. M. eds., Global energy governance: The new rules of the game. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, pp. 1–24.

Helm, D. (2017). Burn out: The endgame for fossil fuels. New Haven: Yale University Press.

Hooghe, L. and Marks, G. (2001). Multi-level governance and European integration. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield.

Hooghe, L. and Marks, G. (2001). Multi-Level Governance and European Integration. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield.

International Energy Agency (IEA). (2021). Net zero by 2050: A roadmap for the global energy sector. Paris: IEA.

International Energy Agency (IEA). (2022a). World Energy Outlook 2022. Paris: IEA.

International Energy Agency (IEA). (2022b). Natural gas market review 2022: Volatility, supply security, and the path ahead. Paris: IEA.

International Energy Agency (IEA). (2023). Gas market report 2023. Paris: IEA.

International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). World Energy Outlook 2024. Paris: IEA.

International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2022). World economic outlook update: Gloomy and more uncertain. Washington, DC: IMF.

Jenkins, K., McCauley, D., Heffron, R. and Stephan, H. (2016). Energy justice: A conceptual review. In: Energy Research and Social Science. Vol. 11, pp. 174–182.

Keohane, R. O. and Nye, J. S. (1977). Power and interdependence: World politics in transition. Boston: Little, Brown.

Lockwood, M. (2018). Right-wing populism and the climate change agenda: Exploring the linkages. In: Environmental Politics. Vol. 27, No. 4, pp. 712–732.

Markard, J., Raven, R. and Truffer, B. (2012). Sustainability transitions: An emerging field of research and its prospects. In: Research Policy. Vol. 41, No. 6, pp. 955–967.

Müller-Kraenner, S. (2008). Energy security: Re-measuring the world. London: Earthscan.

Natorski, M. and Herranz Surallés, A. (2008). Securitizing moves to nowhere? The framing of the European Union’s energy policy. In: Journal of Contemporary European Research. Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 70–89.

Niemann, A. and Speyer, J. (2018). A neofunctionalist perspective on the ‘European refugee crisis’: The case of the European Border and Coast Guard. In: Journal of Common Market Studies. Vol. 56, No. 1, pp. 23–40.

Overland, I. (2019). The geopolitics of renewable energy: Debunking four emerging myths. In: Energy Research & Social Science. Vol. 49, pp. 36–40.

Pierson, P. (2000). Increasing returns, path dependence, and the study of politics. In: American Political Science Review. Vol. 94, No. 2, pp. 251–267.

Scholten, D. (Ed.). (2018). The geopolitics of renewables. Cham: Springer.

Siddi, M. (2023). EU energy policy after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: REPowerEU, crisis management, and long-term transformation. In: Journal of European Integration. Vol. 45, No. 1, pp. 103–120.

Sovacool, B. K. and Dworkin, M. H. (2015). Energy justice: Conceptual insights and practical applications. In: Applied Energy. Vol. 142, pp. 435–444.

Sovacool, B. K. and Mukherjee, I. (2011). Conceptualizing and measuring energy security: A synthesized approach. In: Energy. Vol. 36, No. 8, pp. 5343–5355.

Tagliapietra, S. (2020). Global energy fundamentals: Economics, politics and technology. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Unruh, G. C. (2000). Understanding Carbon Lock-In. In: Energy Policy, Vol. 28, No. 12, pp. 817–830.

Unruh, G. C. (2002). Escaping Carbon Lock-In. In: Energy Policy, Vol. 30, No. 4, pp. 317–325.

Vezzoni, R. (2023). Green Growth for Whom, How and Why? The REPowerEU Plan and the Inconsistencies of European Union Energy Policy. In: Energy Research & Social Science, Vol. 101, 103134.

van Malmborg, F. (2023). First and Always: Politics of the ‘Energy Efficiency First’ Principle in EU Energy and Climate Policy. In: Energy Research & Social Science, Vol. 101, 103126.

Yergin, D. (2006). Ensuring energy security. In: Foreign Affairs. Vol. 85, No. 2, pp. 69–82.