Changing Patterns in Electoral Behaviour: Electoral Volatility in Hungary and Slovakia
Keywords:
Electoral volatility, Hungary, Slovakia, Party switching, Party system instability, Electoral behaviourAbstract
The aim of this paper is to update knowledge about voting patterns and electoral behaviour in Hungary and Slovakia based on data from the last elections in 2018 and 2020. Political studies of electoral behaviour across Central and Eastern Europe with new democracies established shortly after fall of authoritarian regimes have found several findings, unique for this area. One of them is a specific type of electoral volatility, typical for political systems which follow longer periods of authoritarian regime. This electoral volatility correlates with high party system instability with new parties emerging every electoral term and old political parties vanishing from political competition. While political scientists studied relationship between electoral volatility and increasing number of political parties, party switching presents considerable threat to stability of party system in CEE. Therefore, this paper studies socioeconomic, demographic, and value factors that determine a specific type of electoral behaviour. This study shows that certain voters’ characteristics increase the likelihood of voters’ behaviour and confirms their relevance in eradicating electoral volatility. The results of this article prove that while voters’ volatility is “natural” for Hungary and Slovakia, age, and education correlate with specific types of behaviour. Additionally, the main reason for abstaining from voting is minimal trust towards democratic principles.
References
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KRIESI, H., GRANDE, E., LACHAT, R., and DOLEZAL, M. (2008). West European Politics in the Age of Globalization. Cambridge University Press. 428 pp.
LIPSET, S. and STEIN, R. (1967). Cleavage Structures, Party Systems and Voter Alignments: An Introduction. In: Lipset, S. M. and Rokkan, S. (eds.). Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-National Perspectives. New York: Free Press. pp. 1-64.
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MAIR, P. (1997). Party System Change: Approaches and Interpretations. New York: Oxford University Press. 264 pp. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/0198295499.001.0001.
MATTINSON, D. (2020). Beyond the Red Wall: Why Labour Lost, How the Conservatives Won and What Will Happen Next? London: Biteback Publishing Limited, 288 pp.
PAPP, Z. and BURTEJIN, Z. (2016). Party-directed personalisation: the role of candidate selection in campaign personalisation in Hungary. In: East European Politics. Vol. 32, No. 4, pp. 466-486. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/21599165.2016.1215303.
PEDERSEN, M. N. (1979). The Dynamics of European Party Systems: Changing Patterns of Electoral Volatility. In: European Journal of Political Research. Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 1-26. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.1979.tb01267.x.
POWELL, E. N. and TUCKER, J. A. (2014). Revisiting Electoral Volatility in Post-Communist Countries: New Data, New Results and New Approaches. In: British Journal of Political Science. Vol. 44, No. 1, pp. 123-147. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123412000531.
SARTORI, G. (1976). Parties and Party Systems. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 383 pp.
SCHMITT, H. (2009). Partisanship in Nine Western Democracies. In: Political Parties and Partisanship: Social Identity and Individual Attitudes. London: Routledge, pp. 75-87.
SCOGGINS, B. (2020). Identity Politics or Economics? Explaining Voter Support for Hungary’s Illiberal FIDESZ. In: East European Politics and Societies and Cultures. Vol. 36, No. 1, pp 1-26. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0888325420954535.
SMOLECOVÁ, A. and ŠÁROVEC, D. (2021). Heading towards collapse? Assessment of the Slovak party system after the 2020 general elections. In: Slovak Journal of Political Sciences. Vol. 21, No. 1, pp. 27-50. DOI: https://doi.org/10.34135/sjps.210102.
SOCIOLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV SLOVENSKEJ AKADÉMIE VIED. (2009). ISSP Slovensko 2009-2010. [online]. Available at: http://sasd.sav.sk/sk/data_katalog_abs.php?id=sasd_2009001. [Accessed 20.12.2022].
TAVITS, M. (2005). The Development of Stable Party Support: Electoral Dynamics in Post-Communist Europe. In: American Journal of Political Science. Vol. 49, No. 2, pp. 283–298. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/3647677.
TAVITS, M. (2008). On the Linkage Between Electoral Volatility and Party System Instability in Central and Eastern Europe. In: European Journal of Political Research. Vol. 47, No. 5, pp. 537-555. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2008.00782.x.
TÓKA, G. (1997). Political Parties in East Central Europe. In: Consolidating the Third Wave Democracies: Themes and Perspectives. MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, pp. 93-134.
VAN HOOREN, F. (2017). De verzorgingsstaat onder druk. In: Van Praag, P. (ed.). Politicologie en de veranderende politiek. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press. pp. 77-96.
WANG, A. (2020). The Death of the European Center-Left. In: Harvard International Review. Vol. 41, No. 2, pp. 58-63. DOI: https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/26917305.
CREWE, I. and DENVER, D. (1985). Electoral Change in Western Democracies: Patterns and Sources of Electoral Volatility. London: Croom Helm Ltd., 438 pp.
CREWE, I. SARLVIK, B. ALT, J. (1977). Partisan Dealignment in Britain 1964 - 1974. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
DALTON, R. J. (1984). Cognitive Mobilization and Partisan Dealignment in Advanced Industrial Democracies. In: The Journal of Politics. Vol. 46, No. 1, pp. 264-284. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2130444.
DALTON, R. J. and WATTENBERG, M. P. (2000). Partisan Change and the Democratic Process. In: Parties without Partisans: Political Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 261–285. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/0199253099.003.0012.
DUVERGER, M. (1972). Factors in a Two-Party and Multiparty System. In: Party Politics and Pressure Groups. New York.
ENYEDI, Z. (2003). How Do Core Concepts Travel? Teaching and Researching Party Politics in Eastern Europe. In: EPSNET Plenary Conference, Paris, France, 13-14 June 2003.
ENYEDI, Z. and DEEGAN-KRAUSE, K. (2010). Introduction: The Structure of Political Competition in Western Europe. In: West European Politics. Vol. 33, No. 3, pp. 415–418. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01402381003654254.
FLEMING, T. (2021). Partisanship and the Effectiveness of Personal Vote Seeking. In: Legislative Studies Quarterly. Vol. 47, No. 3, pp. 505-538. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/lsq.12335.
FRANKLIN, M. N., MACKIE, T. and VALEN, H. (1992). Electoral Change: Responses to Evolving Social and Attitudinal Structures in Western Countries. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 489 pp.
GHERGHINA, S. (2009). Still Waters Run Deep: Party Organization and Electoral Stability in New Democracies. Lisbon: ECPR Join Sessions 2009.
GURŇÁK, D. and MIKUŠ, R. (2012). Odraz rómskej otázky vo volebnom správaní na Slovensku – politicko-geografická analýza. In: Geographia Cassoviensis. [online]. Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 18-27. Available at: <https://uge-share.science.upjs.sk/webshared/GCass_web_files/articles/GC-2012-6-2/02_Gurnak_Mikus_tlac2.pdf>. [Accessed 20.12.2022].
GYARFÁŠOVÁ, O., BAHNA, M., and SLOSIARIK, M. (2017). Sila nestálosti: volatilita voličov na Slovensku vo voľbách 2016. In: Středoevropské politické studie / Central European Political Studies Review. Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 1-24. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5817/CEPSR.2017.1.1.
HAUGHTON, T. and DEEGAN-KRAUSE, K. (2015). Hurricane Season: Systems of Instability in Central and East European Party Politics. In: East European Politics and Societies and Cultures. Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 61-80. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0888325414566072.
HAWES, D. (2021). Brexit Land. In: Journal of Contemporary European Studies. Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 155-156. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14782804.2020.1853922.
INGLEHART, R. (1977). The Silent Revolution: Changing Values and Political Styles Among Western Publics. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press. 496 pp.
KABINET VÝSKUMU SOCIÁLNEJ A BIOLOGICKEJ KOMUNIKÁCIE SLOVENSKEJ AKADÉMIE VIED. (2008). Občianstvo a participácia na Slovensku 2008. [online]. Available at: http://sasd.sav.sk/sk/data_katalog_abs.php?id=sasd_2008003. [Accessed 20.12.2022].
KITSCHELT, H., MANSFELDOVÁ, Z., MARKOWSKI, R., and TÓKA, G. (1999). Post-Communist Party Systems: Competition, Representation, and Inter-Party Cooperation. Cambridge: University Press, Cambridge UK. 449 pp.
KLUKNAVSKÁ, A. (2015). A Right-wing Extremist or People’s Protector? Media Coverage of Extreme Right Leader Marian Kotleba in 2013 Regional Elections in Slovakia. In: East European Journal of Society and Politics. Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 147-165. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17356/ieejsp.v1i1.35.
KOŁCZYŃSKA, M. (2020). The Economy and Governance as Determinants of Political Trust in Europe: An Analysis of the European Values Study and World Values Survey, 1990–2019. In: Sociologický časopis/Czech Sociological Review. Vol. 56, No. 6, pp. 791-833. DOI: https://doi.org/10.13060/csr.2020.051.
KRIESI, H., GRANDE, E., LACHAT, R., and DOLEZAL, M. (2008). West European Politics in the Age of Globalization. Cambridge University Press. 428 pp.
LIPSET, S. and STEIN, R. (1967). Cleavage Structures, Party Systems and Voter Alignments: An Introduction. In: Lipset, S. M. and Rokkan, S. (eds.). Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-National Perspectives. New York: Free Press. pp. 1-64.
MAGUIRE, M. (1983). Is There Still Persistence? Electoral Change in Western Europe, 1948–1979. In: Daalder, H. and Mair, P. (eds.). Western European Party Systems: Continuity and Change. Beverly Hills CA: Sage Publications Ltd. pp. 67-94.
MAIR, P. (1997). Party System Change: Approaches and Interpretations. New York: Oxford University Press. 264 pp. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/0198295499.001.0001.
MATTINSON, D. (2020). Beyond the Red Wall: Why Labour Lost, How the Conservatives Won and What Will Happen Next? London: Biteback Publishing Limited, 288 pp.
PAPP, Z. and BURTEJIN, Z. (2016). Party-directed personalisation: the role of candidate selection in campaign personalisation in Hungary. In: East European Politics. Vol. 32, No. 4, pp. 466-486. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/21599165.2016.1215303.
PEDERSEN, M. N. (1979). The Dynamics of European Party Systems: Changing Patterns of Electoral Volatility. In: European Journal of Political Research. Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 1-26. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.1979.tb01267.x.
POWELL, E. N. and TUCKER, J. A. (2014). Revisiting Electoral Volatility in Post-Communist Countries: New Data, New Results and New Approaches. In: British Journal of Political Science. Vol. 44, No. 1, pp. 123-147. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123412000531.
SARTORI, G. (1976). Parties and Party Systems. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 383 pp.
SCHMITT, H. (2009). Partisanship in Nine Western Democracies. In: Political Parties and Partisanship: Social Identity and Individual Attitudes. London: Routledge, pp. 75-87.
SCOGGINS, B. (2020). Identity Politics or Economics? Explaining Voter Support for Hungary’s Illiberal FIDESZ. In: East European Politics and Societies and Cultures. Vol. 36, No. 1, pp 1-26. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0888325420954535.
SMOLECOVÁ, A. and ŠÁROVEC, D. (2021). Heading towards collapse? Assessment of the Slovak party system after the 2020 general elections. In: Slovak Journal of Political Sciences. Vol. 21, No. 1, pp. 27-50. DOI: https://doi.org/10.34135/sjps.210102.
SOCIOLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV SLOVENSKEJ AKADÉMIE VIED. (2009). ISSP Slovensko 2009-2010. [online]. Available at: http://sasd.sav.sk/sk/data_katalog_abs.php?id=sasd_2009001. [Accessed 20.12.2022].
TAVITS, M. (2005). The Development of Stable Party Support: Electoral Dynamics in Post-Communist Europe. In: American Journal of Political Science. Vol. 49, No. 2, pp. 283–298. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/3647677.
TAVITS, M. (2008). On the Linkage Between Electoral Volatility and Party System Instability in Central and Eastern Europe. In: European Journal of Political Research. Vol. 47, No. 5, pp. 537-555. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2008.00782.x.
TÓKA, G. (1997). Political Parties in East Central Europe. In: Consolidating the Third Wave Democracies: Themes and Perspectives. MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, pp. 93-134.
VAN HOOREN, F. (2017). De verzorgingsstaat onder druk. In: Van Praag, P. (ed.). Politicologie en de veranderende politiek. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press. pp. 77-96.
WANG, A. (2020). The Death of the European Center-Left. In: Harvard International Review. Vol. 41, No. 2, pp. 58-63. DOI: https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/26917305.
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2022-12-31
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Ondruška, M. (2022) “Changing Patterns in Electoral Behaviour: Electoral Volatility in Hungary and Slovakia”, Slovak Journal of Political Sciences, 22(2), pp. 276–292. Available at: https://sjps.fsvucm.sk/index.php/sjps/article/view/348 (Accessed: 20 November 2024).
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